Have We Already Built the Last Gas-Turbine Airliner?

Could it be that the last new gas turbine-powered commercial aircraft has already been built?

It’s a provocative question, but one the industry can’t ignore. There doesn’t appear to be any clean-sheet conventional airliner on the near horizon. Even if a new gas-turbine (GT) programme were launched soon, it would be unlikely to enter service much before 2040. By then, aviation may be pivoting to fundamentally new propulsion technologies. The era of designing new GT-powered airliners could be pausing…

…if not already behind us.

This is not speculation for its own sake. Net-zero commitments and sustainability pressures mean the next generation of aircraft is expected to be radically different. Airbus once aimed to debut a hydrogen-powered airliner by 2035, but that target has slipped into the 2040s. Boeing is even more cautious, focusing on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to extend the life of existing fleets while delaying a new design. Industry roadmaps point to hybrid-electric regional aircraft by the mid-2030s, a revolutionary new narrowbody around 2040, and a next-generation widebody by the mid-2040s. All depend on massive investment and technological breakthroughs.

In the meantime, today’s aircraft – 737 MAXs, A320neos, A350s, 787s and even older 737NGs, A320ceos, 777s and A330s – will form the backbone of global fleets for far longer than previous generations. A wholesale replacement is decades away.

A Longer Life for Today’s Fleet

This delay virtually guarantees an extended operational life for current aircraft. Airlines and lessors will hold these assets well into the 2030s. Demand for mid-life and older jets has already surged, with models once destined for part-out being returned to service or kept on lease. In a world short of new aircraft, a 20-year-old 737NG or A320ceo is no longer “old” but a valuable, revenue-generating asset.

Parts supply and maintenance strategies are shifting accordingly. Operators are leaning heavily on Used Serviceable Material (USM) to control costs and mitigate risk. USM – the harvesting and re-use of serviceable components from retired or idled aircraft – has become critical in an era of long lead times and high Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) prices. We also expect a robust market for green-time engines, where serviceable engines with remaining life are swapped in to avoid costly overhauls.

Global supply chain snags, labour shortages, and technical issues have created a capacity crunch for newer aircraft and their engines. Paradoxically, this increases the value of older equipment. OEM production is still recovering from the pandemic, while some new-engine fixes are taking years. Rising new-parts costs “create favourable conditions for long-term values on used aircraft and engines,” as AerFin trading experts have observed. Yesterday’s sunset fleets have become a lifeline for today’s operations.

The Rise of Early Teardowns

One of the clearest signs of this shift is the early teardown of relatively young aircraft. Only a few years ago, dismantling a 2017-vintage Airbus A320neo barely out of its first service interval would have been unthinkable. Yet it is happening. AerFin and others are disassembling A320neo-family jets not because they are obsolete, but to unlock urgently needed spare parts.

A key driver is engine availability. The A320neo’s Pratt & Whitney GTF engines have faced durability challenges requiring frequent inspections and removals. Rather than wait months or years for OEM fixes, the aftermarket is harvesting viable engines and parts from lightly used frames. Of roughly 600 early-build A320neos in service, hundreds use the GTF, so salvaging a grounded engine from a parted jet can immediately return another aircraft to service.

These strategic teardowns accelerate the flow of next-generation components and help resolve maintenance bottlenecks. What might seem drastic – dismantling a nearly new aircraft- is in fact a savvy way to turn a short-term challenge into an opportunity.

AerFin’s Approach

At AerFin, this is how we “use the difficulty.” When supply chains tighten and lead times stretch, the aftermarket must innovate. One of our strategies is to acquire younger aircraft specifically for disassembly. This year alone we have secured multiple A320neo aircraft for teardown, enabling us to build inventory and capability around the A320neo family and GTF engine solutions. Engines fresh from overhaul can go straight into lease pools or swap programmes to help carriers dealing with groundings.

By dismantling young airframes close to the markets they serve, we optimise asset value and provide airlines with sustainable, cost-effective alternatives to new parts. Each teardown releases around 1,400 high-value components back into active fleets, giving operators the flexibility and reliability they need to keep flying.

What Comes After Gas Turbines?

If no new GT-powered design is launched soon, what propulsion technologies will eventually take over? The leading contenders – hydrogen, electric and hybrid-electric – are all advancing, but none are ready for large commercial service.

Hydrogen aircraft could be zero-emission at the point of use, but storing liquid hydrogen safely requires bulky cryogenic tanks and new airframe architectures. Airbus’s ZEROe concept is now aiming for the 2040–2045 timeframe and will likely start with smaller regional aircraft. Boeing remains sceptical of hydrogen’s near-term viability and is focusing on SAF as a bridge technology.

Electric propulsion is making progress in sub-20-seat aircraft and urban air mobility vehicles, but scaling battery technology to power a 100-plus seat jet requires a revolution in energy density. Hybrid-electric systems, combining fuel-burning engines with electric motors, may arrive sooner, likely in regional turboprops during the 2030s. A truly revolutionary narrowbody might not debut until around 2040, with a next-gen widebody following in the mid-2040s if all goes well.

These timelines are long and uncertain. Even a hydrogen aircraft might still use a modified gas turbine to burn hydrogen. But the shift will be epochal when it comes, requiring trillions in infrastructure and coordinated global investment. Until then, airlines must continue to serve passengers and move cargo with the aircraft already in hand. The aftermarket will be the linchpin that keeps these fleets safe, reliable and efficient until tomorrow’s technology is ready.

Thinking about this transition, I remain optimistic yet grounded. Human ingenuity is already unlocking ways to make aviation more sustainable, from big leaps like hydrogen propulsion to smaller, but innovation is rarely linear. Timelines can slip, and unforeseen challenges will arise.

The idea that the last traditional airliner design is already flying is both startling and exciting. It’s startling because it signals a pause in the familiar rhythm of ever-newer jet models. But it’s exciting because it allows us to imagine what comes next. In this period of pause, the emphasis shifts from new aircraft sales to extracting maximum value from assets already in operation.

The aftermarket becomes the hero of this story, extending the life of aircraft, harvesting value through teardowns and smart component recovery, and ensuring airlines can continue to grow and serve markets even without new models rolling off the line.

For airlines, lessors, OEMs, and MROs, the implications are clear. Leaning into USM and creative maintenance solutions is no longer a niche strategy; it’s becoming mainstream. Investment in skills to support advanced new energy aircraft will be important, but there’s no need to rush that at the expense of the present. The fleets of the 2020s and 2030s will be the ones we already know. Supporting them efficiently, affordably and with an eye on environmental impact, through reuse and life extension, is how we bridge to the future.

Every airframe kept flying a little longer, every engine overhauled or replaced with a green-time alternative, every part salvaged and put back to work buys time for the next revolution to mature. It is also a responsible approach that aligns with sustainability goals.

The Bridge to the Future

Whether or not the very last all-new GT-powered airliner has already been built, the trajectory is clear: change is coming, but until it fully arrives, we will rely on today’s aircraft more than ever. This could be an unprecedented boom time for the aftermarket, a period where the industry demonstrates how much value and performance can be extracted from existing technology.

At AerFin, we see this not as a predicament but as a profound opportunity: to innovate in asset management, support our customers in new ways, and help aviation navigate its most significant transition in decades. The aftermarket will be the bridge to the sustainable future, one repaired engine, one reused part, and one smart teardown at a time.